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Global energy storage system solution supplier with 15 years manufacturing experience. Chinese
Analysis Of Photovoltaic Module Price Trends And Industry Impact For 2025-2026
As the global energy transition accelerates, the photovoltaic (PV) industry, as a key component of renewable energy, continues to attract significant attention for its promising development prospects. However, price fluctuations in the photovoltaic module market remain a critical factor influencing the industry's growth. This article will analyze the price trends of photovoltaic modules for 2025-2026 and explore their impact on the industry.
1. Cost Factors Driving Price Fluctuations
The cost of photovoltaic modules is primarily composed of solar cells, glass, encapsulation film, and labor expenses. In recent years, with intensified competition in the photovoltaic market, leading companies have achieved significant progress in refined management, reducing labor and administrative costs to their limits. However, as the primary cost component of photovoltaic modules, the price of solar cells plays a decisive role in module pricing.
Due to the oversupply of polysilicon in earlier periods, prices have been under sustained pressure since 2023, even falling below cost levels in the first half of 2024. Although several companies have proactively adjusted capacity by reducing operating rates and slowing down the pace of capacity expansion, the overall speed and extent of these adjustments remain limited. Coupled with the impact of increased U.S. tariffs on polysilicon and silicon materials, polysilicon prices are expected to remain at low levels in 2025.
2. Supply and Demand Dynamics Impacting Price Trends
In an environment of overcapacity, the selling price of photovoltaic modules gradually approaches cost, with some companies even selling below cost to reduce inventory, further driving downward pressure on prices. However, given the supply-demand pressures and the competitive landscape of the industry, photovoltaic module prices are expected to remain in a low adjustment phase in 2025. Smaller enterprises may intensify their inventory clearance efforts to survive, which could create temporary downward pressure on market prices. In the long term, as capacity is adjusted and excess inventory is cleared, the supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve by the end of 2025 or early 2026. At that point, photovoltaic module prices may begin to rebound.
2. Impact of Photovoltaic Module Prices on the Industry
1. Increased Operational Pressure on Enterprises
The current round of photovoltaic module price adjustments has imposed significant operational pressure on industry players. Leading companies, with their high R&D costs, are at a disadvantage in the price competition. Meanwhile, small and medium-sized enterprises find it challenging to endure prolonged price wars. The industry cannot sustain low operating rates indefinitely, and as a result, some companies are likely to be eliminated during this adjustment phase.
2. Driving Industry Reshuffling and Restructuring
During this adjustment phase, companies must focus on sustaining operations with minimal or even negative profit margins or seek technological breakthroughs to identify the next growth opportunities. This will drive an industry-wide reshuffling and restructuring. After the adjustments and reshuffling, the supply-demand relationship is expected to improve by late 2025 or early 2026, with industry prices returning to rational levels. At that point, the photovoltaic manufacturing sector will usher in a new development landscape, where companies with technological advantages and strong cost-control capabilities will stand out.
In conclusion, photovoltaic modules prices are expected to remain in a low adjustment phase during 2025-2026. However, the likelihood of significant price drops is minimal, and upward pressure on prices persists. With capacity adjustments, market clearing, and advancements in technological innovation, the supply-demand dynamics are anticipated to improve by late 2025 or early 2026, potentially marking a turning point for module prices. During this period, companies must proactively adapt to market changes by enhancing technological innovation and cost-control capabilities to improve competitiveness. At the same time, governments should strengthen policy guidance and provide support to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the photovoltaic industry.
Source: Online; PV Online
Blue Carbon Battery, which officially entered in Rizhao in 2009, is one of the best suppliers of photovoltaic product research development and micro-energy storage system solutions in the world.
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